"I win 70% of my trades" sounds like an edge. It might be a slow-motion account leak. Win rate alone tells you nothing until you pair it with how big your wins and losses are.
The two numbers that matter
Profit factor = gross profits ÷ gross losses. Above 1.0 you are net profitable; below it you are paying the market for the entertainment. A trader who wins 70% of the time with $100 average wins and $300 average losses has a profit factor of (0.7 × 100) ÷ (0.3 × 300) = 0.78. Losing money, seven wins out of ten.
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). It answers the only question that compounds: what does the average trade pay me? The trader above has an expectancy of −$20 per trade. A 40% win rate with $300 wins and $100 losses has an expectancy of +$60 per trade.
Why traders fool themselves
High win rates feel good, so traders unconsciously optimize for them: taking profits early (shrinking average wins) and letting losers run "back to breakeven" (growing average losses). The scoreboard says 70%, the account says otherwise. The cure is measuring all four inputs — win count, loss count, average win, average loss — over your last 30+ trades, honestly.
Measure yours in one minute
Our free win rate calculator takes those four numbers and returns your win rate, win/loss ratio, profit factor, and expectancy. If you create a free account, you can save the snapshot and track whether your edge is improving — because a number you only calculate once is a curiosity, not a feedback loop.